How the release of CS2 will affect esports betting

At the end of September, Valve transferred CS:GO players to a new version of the game – CS2, which brought not only changes in gameplay and graphics, but also in the format of matches. These changes will have a significant impact on the strategies of teams and players, as well as making it more difficult to analyze matches for betting.

Briefly about the change in the format of the games

The new format, named “MR12,” entails:

  • Two halves of 12 rounds for a total of 24 rounds of main time.
  • Victory in the match, counted by the first team at the end of 13 rounds.
  • Applying the same overtime rules as in MR15.

These changes promise to make the games more dynamic and exciting, but on the other hand may make data collection more difficult and reduce the accuracy of predictions for betting.

New format – new models and categories

Providers face the challenge of adapting existing models and markets to the new format. Data modeling based on 30 rounds becomes inapplicable for the new MR12 format. This creates difficulties in predicting the number of rounds, handicaps and exact scores.

Match win bets remain, but other types of bets such as over/under rounds will be changed. The format changes will require updating the modeling for the first two rounds and realigning the markets. Suppliers should refrain from rushing decisions on player markets such as more/less kills, as 30.5 kills per game for a player with fewer rounds may not happen at all.

How MR12 will affect betting

The CS2 format changes will have a significant impact on betting markets. Difficulties in building models and markets will arise due to the lack of data to analyze. In the first weeks after the launch, we expect a limited selection of markets and conservative odds, so esports betting in this discipline will develop slowly and cautiously. As betting providers collect more data, they will gradually introduce new models and markets, so stay tuned.

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